TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/012389/01238900.036

Text File | 1992-09-23 | 7.2 KB | 138 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 32

MIDDLE EAST

Contemplating the Next Step


In interviews with TIME editors, Mubarak and Hussein urge George
Bush to take charge of jump-starting peace negotiations

By Hosni Mubarak, King Hussein, Henry Muller, John Stacks


    Now that the U.S. is talking to Yasser Arafat's Palestine
Liberation Organization, what should the next step be? For
Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Hussein, two
moderates whose unofficial alliance is seen by the U.S. as a
key to peace in the region, the answer is obvious -- and
familiar: get the U.S. to budge Israel.

    In interviews last week with TIME managing editor Henry
Muller and chief of correspondents John Stacks, the Arab
leaders each emphasized that the incoming Bush Administration
should make the Middle East a top priority and must persuade (a
polite word for "pressure") Israel's newly formed unity
government to enter peace negotiations aimed at reaching a
settlement fair to the Palestinians.

    Mubarak and Hussein see no realistic alternative to strong
American activism, since Arafat has made some important
concessions on the Arab side but Israel's Prime Minister
Yitzhak Shamir remains adamant in refusing demands that his
country withdraw from the disputed territories. "You have your
own connections with the Israelis," Mubarak said. "We are
trying hard with the Israelis, but we can't play in the court
alone. You should find a way to tackle this problem of how to
persuade the Israelis to move forward in the peace process."

    Despite evidence that the U.S. is usually reluctant to exert
pressure on Israel in matters of war and peace and doubts that
Israel would listen anyway, Hussein sees Bush's experience in
foreign affairs as reason for Arab optimism. "The U.S. can do
much with Israel, and it needs to do much in the times ahead,"
he said. Bush "knows the area. With all due respect, I had many
meetings with President Reagan, (but) he had other priorities.
Of all the problems the world has, (the Middle East) is the most
dangerous."

    Mubarak and Hussein, speaking separately in Cairo and Amman,
discouraged any suggestion that Bush should come up with a new
set of peace proposals. As they see it, all the parties to the
conflict, except for the present Israeli government, already
favor the convening of an international conference that includes
Palestinian representation. "We don't need any more new
initiatives," Hussein said. "There is a general agreement that
an international conference would be the venue for the
establishment of peace. All the parties have to participate.
The Palestinians have to be involved. So we have to get on with
it, rather than start looking for new formulas."

    Mubarak said that Shamir should not fear that Arab states
will gang up on Israel during negotiations. "Frankly speaking,"
he said, "I wonder why he fears an international conference. It
will lead immediately to direct negotiations," as Shamir
demands. Shamir is now suggesting he might countenance U.N.
sponsorship to launch peace talks, but he remains firmly
opposed to any more substantive international participation. In
a separate interview in Jerusalem, Israeli Foreign Minister
Moshe Arens explained why. At an international conference, he
said, "there's the danger of having pressure applied to you, not
by the party with whom you have to make peace but by other
parties who may have other interests."

    Arab leaders feel the Palestinian intifadeh in the West Bank
and Gaza has given new urgency to resolving the prolonged debate
over mechanics. "We can't spend years and years speaking about
the Palestinian problem without any solution," Mubarak warned.
"The Palestinians are living under oppression. They started the
intifadeh on their own. We have to give them hope that they are
going to have their rights." Hussein agreed that the uprising
"has proved Israel was wrong in assuming that by occupying
other people's territories, it would assure security for
itself."

    Mubarak also called on "courageous people in Israel" to
reciprocate the offering of the olive branch made by his
predecessor, the late Anwar Sadat, during his daring trip to
Jerusalem in 1977. But Hussein argued that timidity was
precisely Israel's problem. Referring to a December poll in the
daily Yediot Aharonot showing that 54% of Israelis favor
negotiations with Arafat's organization, Hussein said, "It is
tragic that Israeli public opinion supports a dialogue with the
P.L.O., yet the leadership in Israel is unable to move with
enough vision and enough courage to seize this opportunity for
making progress toward the establishment of a just peace."
Arens remained unconvinced. "We certainly don't feel (there is
such a shift) in the political arena," he said.

    If Mubarak and Hussein simply wait for U.S. pressure on
Israel, however, they could be profoundly disappointed. As
Hussein noted, Palestinian or Israeli extremists could
literally blow up the chances for peace. Meanwhile, Arab
moderates may feel content to sit back rather than consider
additional steps that could entice Israel into negotiations,
like encouraging broad Arab recognition of Israel's right to
exist. That, Hussein insists, will be "no problem" once there
is a comprehensive Arab-Israeli settlement. "I have been asked
many times, `Do you recognize Israel?' " Hussein said. "I have
suggested again and again that since we accepted Resolution 242,
that was obviously a fact." But it is also a fact that Jordan's
willingness has yet to result in a peace treaty with Israel, and
the radical regimes in Syria, Iraq and Libya have given no sign
that they are prepared to recognize Israel's right to exist.

    Israel hopes to sidetrack an Arab-American drive by
proffering a peace plan of its own. While Arens made it clear
Israel would not follow the U.S. into talks with the P.L.O.,
that American decision has quickened Israeli diplomacy. Without
acknowledging the reason, Arens said that Shamir would present a
new peace initiative when he visits Washington later this
winter. "I think at this stage of the game the ball's in our
court," said Arens. "The ((Israeli)) government has got to
enunciate its position, and I would hope that the U.S. would
support an Israeli initiative."

    All would do well to consider Hussein's counsel that
conditions for peace have not been so ripe since the state of
Israel was founded in 1948. The trend is toward moderation.
Egypt has a treaty with Israel, Jordan at least wants to
resolve the conflict, and the P.L.O. seems ready to talk rather
than fight. Radical Arabs, said Mubarak, are increasingly
feeling "cornered." At an Arab League meeting expected soon,
Hussein will lead a moderate attempt to reinstate Egypt,
expelled for signing the peace treaty with Israel in 1979. He
also wants to take away the statutory authority of the radicals
to paralyze moderate Arab initiatives with a veto in the Arab
League. If those things happen, it should encourage the U.S. to
persuade Israel -- perhaps without even having to resort to
pressure -- to be more flexible about negotiations.